Wide Open Race in 2A Girls Team Race, but David is Favorite

 


Date: 11/5/2022
Location: Detweiller Park; Peoria, IL
Course: 3.0 miles
Race Time: 11am
Awards ceremony: 1p at the Detweiller Park venue
Weather forecast: 57F, light rain, windy
MileSplit IL 50 Rankings: Read Here
The qualifying teams: #1 Grayslake Central, #2 Lake Villa (Lakes), #3 Crystal Lake South, #4 Washington, #5 Dunlap, #6 Dixon, #7 Rochester, #8 Chatham-Glenwood, #9 Chicago (St. Ignatius), #10 Morton, #11 Waterloo, #12 Normal West, #13 Normal (University), #14 Crystal Lake Central, #15 Mt. Zion, #16 Cary-Grove, #17 Lake Forest, #18 Metamora, #19 Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge), #20 Morris, #21 Vernon Hills, #22 Springfield, #23 Peoria (Notre Dame), #24 Deerfield, Antioch, Chicago Marist, Wheaton (St. Francis)

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Grayslake Central, the defending state champions, went wire-to-wire this season in the #1 ranking spot and enters as the favorites to begin a run at doubling boys/girls titles in 2022. However, unlike Unity, this is anything but a runaway, with as many as ten teams with viable trophy hopes. Central's pack begins with breakout star Ava Henne. The freshman has set the school record in multiple races and has been a rock for the Rams. She and Sara Armstrong are both strong all-state contenders who have been consistent throughout the year. The rest of the scoring pack is comprised of another breakout frosh Jordan Sutter, as well as veterans Bella Domier and Katie Armstrong.

The Rams' chief competition may be from their most familiar competition Lakes Community, who came within two points of Grayslake Central in consecutive postseason weekends. Paige-Elicia Caruth and Becca Runyan lead the Eagles, using two very different racing styles to get to the same spots in races. Late in the NLCC conference meet, Lakes had the lead but was passed by Grayslake Central. It may be similarly close at state. Lakes was beaten at sectionals, however, by Saint Ignatius who had race winner Annika Swan lead an airtight pack with all seven runners under 18:50. There could be any order between these teams, who all ran at the Deerfield Sectional.

A downstate team that could pass all these northern schools is Washington, a young, freshman-heavy squad that has been battle-tested this year. The Panthers are led by Sophia Ramirez, second-place finisher at the Metamora Sectional and Mid-Illini conference champ. The ceiling for Washington, who is also seven deep, maybe the highest of any team in the division.

There is a rival Dunlap who knows Washington well and has beaten them multiple times. A pack including Abby Tudeen, Abbie Gleason, Saniya Mathew, and Kate Robertson makes Dunlap a solid bet to finish within the trophy range with a good race.

Further downstate brings competitive Central State-8 powers Glenwood and Rochester. Rochester is a hot team, led by Colleen Zeibert and her sisters Ashley and Brooke, along with frosh Natalie Nichols. They have been close to conference rivals Glenwood, generally fronted by Rachael Behrens and Ashlyn Chopra. Rochester had the head-to-head edge until Glenwood was ahead of Rochester at their home sectional.

Still, both teams took a back seat to Normal Community west in a massive breakout race for the Wildcats. Julie Bach has been the best Wildcat all year but massive races from Renee Warren and Ashleigh Horton have now put the Wildcats on the map.

Finally, do not take your eye off the Crystal Lake Schools. Crystal Lake South won an amazingly fast Peoria Central race, and their performance was one of the most impressive from any team all year. They have not matched that performance, but have remained competitive holding off rival Crystal Lake Central on multiple occasions. The most recent was also the closest call, a tight tie-breaker victory for the Gators. Both programs have proven they cannot be counted out when it means the most.

Individual-

All things considered, it has been a quiet year for Tatum David. David made a debut comfortably winning the 2A race at First to the Finish and then was in the front pack in a deep Nike XC Town Twilight field. However, she has made just a few appearances close to home in a season that appears as though she is saving some for the postseason. Her 16:43 run at Glenwood indicates perhaps she is ready for a big race. Do not forget her 2022 track season, which started slowly, and ended with a 10:04 3200m state title win and a 4:38 Festival of Miles championship win. She will set the tone in this race. The 10:04 from the spring showed that she is fit to challenge her 16:04 personal best for three miles from her freshman year. There hasn't been much to indicate this fall that she is in that shape, but there also has been no indication that she's not. Keep an open mind for what David is capable of this Saturday!

Who leads the chase pack? Start with 800 state record holder Becca Heitzig, who has really figured out three miles this year. Heitzig is undefeated against all except David this fall. She has run in the 17:10-17:20 range for three miles numerous times and is a candidate to crush the 17-minute barrier at state.

Look next at Rachel Soukup, a senior from Prairie Ridge. Soukup has been an all-state runner every year she has competed in high school but has saved her absolute best for her final season of cross country. Soukup showed her mettle with a third-place finish at Palatine, and outside of that race, she has been undefeated since the start of September. Keeping this undefeated streak alive has required holding off Crystal Lake Central soph Hadley Ferrero, who has shown that a season away from track did not slow her down, and is set to make a run at her own school record set last year in 16:55 at state. 

Not yet mentioned is the top returner from the state meet last year, Mia Kotler. Kotler did not race this fall until regionals, a win in under 17:30. Kotler appears to still be getting into form. At Deerfield, Kotler went blow-for-blow with Swan, and took a lead with 1.5 miles to go. Swan had the wheels to pull away from Kotler gradually throughout the latter part of the race, and Kotler eventually faded to fourth behind Lucia Ton-That of Chicago Northside and Henne. What will Kotler have to give in this abbreviated ramp-up to state? And what will the state see from Swan for that matter? Aside from a tempo at regionals, Swan has been undefeated since Richard Spring and has beaten stiff competition during that streak. She goes up against more senior competition like Heitzig and Soukup, but what can the newcomer bring to the table on Saturday?