Brennan Lester (Riverside-Brookfield), Ryan Jones (Deerfield), Charles Blackmer (Vernon Hills), Gavin O'Connor (Brother Rice), and Lleyton Turk (Glenwood) duke it out at the 2A boys state meet. RB, Deerfield, and Vernon Hills will all be in 3A next year, and Glenwood appears headed for 3A in the coming years. Brother Rice has been 3A in the past.
On December 21, the IHSA released the 2023-2025 School Enrollments and Classification Cut-offs for all sports. These can be found on this page. The Association also went the additional step and posted Fall Sports classifications, as well as Fall Sports Multipliers. All of the classes for Cross Country (as well as Golf, Boys' Soccer, Girls' Tennis, and Girls' Volleyball) can be found at this link. The current track classifications are not posted and will not be until June, but since the classification cut-off ranges are published, teams can determine on their own what classification they will be placed into.
The most significant shift is a change in classification ranges. For both cross country and track, the range cut-offs for all three classes decreased. Here is a summary of those changes.
Cross Country:
| Year | 1a | 2a | 3a |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2023 | Under 678 | 678.01 to 1665 | Over 1665.01 |
| 2023-2025 | Under 574.00 | 574.01 to 1470 | Over 1470.01 |
Track:
| Year | 1a | 2a | 3a |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2023 | Under 473 | 473.01 to 1313 | Over 1313.01 |
| 2023-2025 | Under 420 | 420 to 1223 | Over 1223.01 |
There are a number of ways to frame these shifts. Each season, the easiest way to frame it is in terms of which schools are going to be competing in a different classification than the previous cycle. We have included a table that shows a summary of newcomers to given classes and the reasons (note: for track, this list cannot be finalized until the season ends since the multiplier has yet to be applied to teams based on performance). For formatting reasons, this table is included on its own page here.
Since we do have the full cross country lists, we count how the sizes of each of these classifications have changed year over year. Below is a table that summarizes these changes.
| classification | 2021-2023 # of teams | teams removed / teams added | total change | 2023-2025 # of teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A Girls | 248 | 35 / 31 | -4 | 244 |
| 1A Boys | 265 | 33 / 20 | -13 | 252 |
| 2A Girls | 139 | 23 / 32 | +9 | 148 |
| 2A Boys | 138 | 23 / 32 | +9 | 147 |
| 3A Girls | 132 | 0 / 13 | +13 | 145 |
| 3A Boys | 132 | 0 / 14 | +14 | 146 |
The IHSA openly calibrates the three classifications so that the three classes are in the following proportions: 40% of schools in 1A, 30% of schools in 2A, and 30% of schools in 3A. The math for the above totals does not work out to 40/30/30, but this is because not all Co-Op programs, or programs with athletes as individuals only, have been reported on the 2023-2025 classification page. When the numbers are adjusted, the total participant sizes for Girls' classes are 194 / 146 / 145, and for Boys, classes are 210 / 147 / 146. This produces a nice more even 40/30/30 split between the three classes. This data is courtesy of Kraig Garber, executive director for IHSA cross country and track.
All of this is to say that there was no change in the IHSA's classification philosophy, despite the change in teams in each class.
As a result of declining feeder enrollment, as well as regional population shifts, Peoria Notre Dame moves to 1A for the first time in the three-class era.
Why are these changes occurring?
Seeing these huge drops in the classification cut-offs, but not so much in the sizes of these classifications, is puzzling at first glance. The 1A/2A cut-off decreased by 104 students and the 2A/3A cut-off dropped by a whopping 195. Just shifts in participant school lists alone cannot account for this change, which leaves us with one last major explanation: we are losing students as a whole in Illinois.
The data bears this out. According to the IHSA enrollment lists published, which are 2-year averages of Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE) enrollments, there are 11,300 fewer students in the state across all schools. Almost 69% of schools have decreased enrollment, with 131 schools decreasing by 10% or more, offset by only 34 schools growing by 10% or more (relative to the 2021-2023 reported enrollments). Among those 69% of schools that have smaller enrollments, the average population drop is 40.8 students.
This overall state population change is also borne out by the numbers reported directly from ISBE--in 2021, the total number of 9-12 students in the state was 604971, and in 2022, this decreased to 600784, a total decrease of almost 4,200 (the discrepancy in this number from the IHSA change is a sample error).
Not all schools are shrinking, of course, but only a select group of 18 schools added 100 to their enrollment, and only eight of those are outside the city limits of Chicago. Below is a brief summary of how many schools fit into each bin of enrollment change.
Schools by Enrollment Change
| enrollment change from 2021 to 2023 | # of schools |
|---|---|
| Lost 100+ | 45 |
| Lost 50-100 | 88 |
| Lost 25-50 | 123 |
| Lost 10-25 | 125 |
| Lost 0-10 | 107 |
| No change | 2 |
| Added 0-10 | 75 |
| Added 10-25 | 65 |
| Added 25-50 | 33 |
| Added 50-100 | 33 |
| Added 100+ | 18 |
This trend is extremely recent--only over the last classification cycle has there been such a decrease in school enrollment as this, therefore there is not a long enough trend to attribute this population change to a single factor, such as the pandemic. According to Garber, the previous enrollment cycle is pre-pandemic counts.
Armed with this data, the decreasing cut-offs should be no surprise. But this leaves many schools in the strange position of seeing decreases in enrollment while simultaneously being bumped to a higher division. Take Cary-Grove for example, whose school population decreases from 1617 to 1514, but moves from 2A to 3A based on enrollment. Deerfield has seen similar population changes recently but also will be running in 3A next year one year removed from hosting a 2A sectional and two years removed from a 2A trophy.
What sticks out about some of the movements that we will see?
- All four defending boys champions at the 1A/2A level (Latin, Fenwick, DePaul, and Riverside-Brookfield) will be running in a higher classification. Latin, Fenwick, and DePaul receive a multiplier due to their trophies, but DePaul would be placed in 2A by enrollment anyways (note: DePaul's enrollment is a good case study in the lagging effect of the 2-year average. Despite enrollments listed at 518 in 2021 and 833 in 2023, DePaul was reported to have a current enrollment of 1077 by head boys' coach Mitchell Baum on Jeff Purdom's Track/XC Coaching Podcast).
-After 16 years of running at the 2A level, Peoria Notre Dame moves to 1A by enrollment despite the lower cut-off. Their enrollment decreased from 729 to 563.
-Aurora (Rosary) would also receive a multiplier into 2A based on their trophy in 2022, but now move into 2A based on enrollment.
-Normal (University) girls were scheduled to move from 2A into 1A after their multiplier expired, but now remain in 2A based on enrollment. Normal (University) boys move into 2A due to both enrollment and multiplier as the only school to receive four or more 'multiplier' points.
-Vernon Hills and Crystal Lake Central, who have both won trophies at the 2A level in cross country, will now be competing in the highest class for the first time in the three-class era.
-As of December 28th, Chicago (Payton) boys were erroneously listed as 3A, and should be running at the 2A level after scoring only three of the requisite four multiplier points.
In 2023, Bryan Malkowski and the DePaul College Prep Rams will have to defend their 2022 1A state championship at the 2A level. All metrics considered, DePaul is the fastest-growing school in the state.
Where are students leaving and entering the most?
This data is not distilled by geography and does not have a long enough trend to make conclusions about population centers. However, we can still list which schools have added and lost the most students. Below are the biggest growers and shrinkers based on changes from 2021 to 2023, by both percentage and enrollment.
Note: All numbers below are rounded numbers if reported as a decimal on IHSA.org. Some enrollments end in decimals other than 0. or .5. According to Garber, these unusual decimals are reported by ISBE "as needed."
Biggest growers by # of students and by % growth
| # | school by enrollment | students added | school by % | % increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago (Taft) | 526 | Yorkville Christian | 95% |
| 2 | Chicago (DePaul College Prep) | 315 | Chicago (DePaul College Prep) | 60.8% |
| 3 | Chicago (Kenwood) | 277 | Chicago (Dunbar) | 37.0% |
| 4 | Chicago (Noble/Mansueto) | 191 | Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) | 33.3% |
| 5 | Machesney Park (Harlem) | 187 | Clay City | 28.9% |
| 6 | Palos Hills (Stagg) | 168 | Pleasant Hill | 24.5% |
| 7 | South Elgin | 160 | Chicago (Horizon/Southwest Chicago) | 22.0% |
| 8 | Kankakee (Sr.) | 155 | Chicago (Noble/Mansueto) | 21.0% |
| 9 | Chicago (Mather) | 155 | Chicago (Leo) | 20.6% |
| 10 | Rockford (Jefferson) | 154 | Chicago (North Lawndale Charter) | 20.2% |
| 11 | Chicago (Curie) | 149 | Chicago (Instrinsic Charter-Downtown Campus) | 19.4% |
| 12 | Chicago (Amundsen) | 135 | Burbank (St. Laurence) | 18.8% |
| 13 | Burbank (St. Laurence) | 133 | Chicago (St. Francis de Sales) | 18.6% |
| 14 | Champaign (Central) | 131 | Chicago (Noble/Noble Academy) | 17.9% |
| 15 | Chicago (Dunbar) | 121 | Dwight | 17.8% |
With over half of the schools represented on the above table being from Chicago, it could feel like the city is experiencing growth but this is probably more due to a shift in school selection (the majority of these schools are either private or charter schools). The city population has been known to be decreasing incrementally over the last decade.
Schools losing the most population by # of students and % growth
# | school by enrollment | students Lost | school by % | % decrease |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berwyn-Cicero (Morton) | -408 | Chicago (Providence St. Mel) | -36.5% |
| 2 | Gurnee (Warren) | -300 | Leland | -34.9% |
| 3 | Richton Park (Rich Township) | -295 | Champaign (Judah Christian) | -30.4% |
| 4 | St. Charles (East) | -270 | Woodstock (Marian) | -30.2% |
| 5 | Plainfield (East) | -225 | Mooseheart | -27.9% |
| 6 | Chicago (St. Patrick) | -223 | Chicago (Noble/Johnson) | -27.5% |
| 7 | Chicago (Noble/Johnson) | -192 | Elgin (Westminster Christian) | -25.2% |
| 8 | Chicago (St. Rita) | -189 | Donovan | -23.8% |
| 9 | Hinsdale (Central) | -185 | Peoria (Notre Dame) | -22.8% |
| 10 | Geneva | -180 | Milledgeville | -22.1% |
| 11 | Highland Park | -174 | Rock Island (Alleman) | -21.8% |
| 12 | Bolingbrook | -172 | Rockford (R. Christian) | -21.6% |
| 13 | River Forest (Trinity) | -171 | Kirkland (Hiawatha) | -21.6% |
| 14 | Grayslake (North) | -170 | Coal City | -21.2% |
| 15 | Woodstock (Marian) | -168 | Campbell Hill (Trico) | -20.8% |
Some schools have been omitted if they do not appear on either the XC or track member list. The fastest shrinkers by # of students comprised mostly of large suburban schools--Morton and Warren for instance, #1 and #11 by enrollment on the IHSA member list so their shrinking is low relatively speaking. However, seeing the number of 3A-size schools on the shrinking list helps explain by the 2A/3A cut-offs in both track and cross country fell so precipitously.
Hadley Ferrero snuck up on 2A competition in 2021. She and the Crystal Lake Central Tigers may be doing more of the same in 3A in 2023.
Thoughts In Summa
As the population continues to shift in the post-COVID educational environment, the competitive landscape of IHSA track and cross country will also continue to shift. Coaches and administrators know this, but changes are still difficult, particularly for programs moving up in a class (or two) despite their own enrollments falling, and despite entire track records of competition in the low enrollment.
For many coaches, there remain more questions than answers. As it stands, there are still 20 schools with over 3,000 students, 40 schools with over 2,500, and 74 with over 2,000. In track, schools of less than 1,250 will compete for the same state qualifying spots against those schools. Is this a playing field the state is comfortable with? At the 1A level, the teams of over 600 students will be leaving the classification in cross country, but teams in that class still contend with tiny rosters competing against much more robust teams, particularly those fielded by private schools. The multiplier's intended effect is working, thinning the lowest class a little bit of the dominance from private schools it has seen over the last seven years especially. But are the smallest schools being served equitably? How about the number of athletes competing as a whole at the 3A level, versus those competing as a whole at the 1A level? Presumably, the IHSA corrects this slightly with the 40/30/30 split. But at the 2022 state meet, less than a quarter of the 60 qualifying teams in 1A fielded a full 14-athlete roster. 1A does have more qualifying spots in both track and cross country than 2A and 3A (27.3% more in track and about 8% more in cross country). What message is sent by the state with those figures?
This treatise is designed to report the changes and explain the mechanics behind them as much as possible. As the track figures are released, there will be known about how teams are affected in the spring.
For any questions, clarifications, or thoughts about the data provided, please reach out to raymond.j.lewis67@gmail.com.
