1. Shelbyville
2015 Finish: 2nd at 1A State
Coach: Kevin Kramer
Key returners:
Tyler Pasley (Sr.) 15:39 / 9:58 / 4:34 (30th)
Ryan Skowronski (Jr.) 15:44 / 10:32 / 1:59 (33rd)
Jordan Sieger (Sr.) 15:47 / 10:28 / 4:39 (37th)
Luke Foltz (Sr.) 16:29 / 53.5 (400) (87th)
Josh Bernson (Sr.) 10:52 / 4:54
Luke Brown (So.) 12:45
Ray's Take: I emailed over 200 coaches from 1A schools in Illinois. Every coach who gave me their state favorite gave the same answer as the last: in 2016, Shelbyville is the consensus preseason favorite to win the 1A State meet. The season is long and much can happen before November, but Shelbyville returns the most firepower to compete on a season-long basis. The Rams have three potential all-state runners: Tyler Pasley, Ryan Skowronski, and Jordan Sieger. Those three finished 8 seconds within each other last fall and provide fantastic strength for the Rams at the front. Watch for Luke Foltz to run as the 4th man throughout the year- Josh Bernson is the likely candidate to round out the top 5.
Shelbyville's last act was spectacular, making a lasting impression at state in November. "Last year we had a fantastic meet in finishing runner up to the best Class 1A team of all time (Unity)," recalls coach Kevin Kramer. "Everyone will have to step up to replace him if we are to continue the success we have had in recent years."
Improving on last year's finish will not be easy, because there is only one stop left: a state championship trophy. But Kramer has an experienced team running as a pack-generally a formula for success on the cross country course. Robinson, Elmwood and Freeburg will be extremely competitive, but Shelbyville earns the nod as out Preseason #1. Kramer: "Because of our few numbers and having to replace our top runner I think this will be a slow developing team, but have a chance to be very good at the end of the year."
2. Elmwood [Coop]
2015 Finish: 5th at 1A State
Coach: Gregg Myers
Key returners:
Derek McCoy (Sr.) 15:20 / 4:43
Kelby Barnewolt (Sr.) 16:26
Cooper Hoffman (Jr.) 16:06 / 10:07 / 4:42
Trevor Dunkel (Jr.) 16:30 / 10:15
Logan Whitney (So.) 16:30
Drew Lueschow (Sr.) 17:08
Ray's Take: Last year's Fifth-place finisher Elmwood-Brimfield [Coop] loses all-stater Matt Osmulski...
And that's it.
They return all-stater Derek McCoy, who enters 2016 as the 3rd best returner in 1A behind Brayden Hamblen and Logan Hall. They also return five runners behind McCoy who contributed to the Trojans' 5th place finish. Cooper Hoffman and Trevor Dunkel return from a strong track season to help form the top 3 and Kelby Barnewolt returns alongside Logan Whitney to round out the scoring 5 for the Trojans. Traditional power Elmwood will surely also be hungry after 2015 saw them off the podium stand for the first time since 2011. The strength Elmwood returns from top to bottom along with the program's staying power makes them very worthy state championship contenders and our preseason #2.
3. Freeburg
2015 Finish: 8th at 1A State
Coach: Carl Florczyk
Key returners:
Charlie Parrish (Jr.) 15:32 / 9:41 / 4:34
Alex Mack (Sr.) 15:39 / 9:57 / 4:46
Carson Smith (So.) 16:33
Corbin Schwable (So.) 16:45 / 4:43
Craig Collier (Sr.) 16:55 / 1:59.9
Blake Hatter (So.) 16:49 / 10:49
Luke Worley (Sr.) 17:10
Ray's Take: No school returns more in quantity than Freeburg does. All seven scorers for the Midgets from state return and makes the team a certain trophy contender. Charlie Parrish was the first runner on the outside looking in for All-State in 26th and Alex Mack was not far behind in 29th, but both are capable of contending for top 5 spots in 2016. Don't underestimate the strength of this front running duo, maybe the best in 1A, especially since they are followed up by a capable pack led by sophomores Carson Smith and Corbin Schwable. Freeburg could have seven runners under 16:30 and five under 16:15. Keep a close eye on Freeburg- 2016 could be the year that the Midgets stand tall.
4. Robinson
2015 Finish: 4th at 1A State
Coach: Tony Cork
Key returners:
Max Smigiel (Jr.) 16:13 / 10:28
Lukas Baird (Jr.) 16:20 / 10:22 / 4:55
Joey Wright (Sr.) 16:23 / 2:00
Morgan Beabout (Sr.) 16:30
Wyatt Bonnell (So.) 16:44 / 10:32
Trayton Tragesser (So.) 4:44
Ray's Take: The Maroons return what could be the tightest 1-6 pack in 1A in 2016. In 2015, Noah Tennison led the Maroons all season long and was a valuable low stick for Robinson, as well as a key factor for Robinson's 4th place finish at state. But the complexion of the team changes, and they return their 3rd through 7th runners who finished within half a minute of each other. Max Smigiel, Lukas Baird and Joey Wright all scored and Morgan Beabout and Wyatt Bonnell finished side by side as last year's 6/7. This pack makes Robinson very dangerous but they will need one of their front runners to step into a single digit scoring position if they want to win a state championship. Regardless, the Maroons are a strong trophy contender and power in the Little Illini conference.
5. Elgin (Harvest Christian Academy)
2015 Finish: 10th at 1A State
Coach: Steven Bland
Key returners:
Andrew Dobrescu (Jr.) 16:04 / 10:16 / 4:41
Mark Davila (Jr.) 16:12
Kyler Young (Jr.) 16:36 / 11:11
Connor Seals (Jr.) 16:51 / 5:01
Riley Steiner (Sr.) 16:50 / 11:07
Ryan Baker (Jr.) 17:35 / 10:44
Michael Sisko (Sr.) 16:11 / 10:13 / 4:46
Ray's Take: The class of 2018 is the story of 3-time Northeastern Athletic Conference champs Harvest Christian Academy, who return five juniors from 2015. All 5 have run under 17 or under 11 for 3200, including 2015 NAC 1600 champ Andrew Dobrescu. Dobrescu finished 4th at the Winnebago regional in 2015 and led the Lions with a 53rd place finish at Detweiller. Senior Michael Sisko missed last year's state meet but returns with the team's top 3200 time and is a likely #2 runner. Look to Mark Davila, Kyler Young, Connor Seals, Ryan Baker and Riley Steiner to compete for top five spots. A dark horse for the team is sophomore Peyton Kasper, who has played basketball previously but finds himself on the course in 2016.
Coach Bland has set the course for the Lions' season: "We have lofty goals, we always aim high. Goal #1 for the Lions is always to win the Northern Athletic Conference, we've done that for the last 3 seasons. Next would be to advance to State, then win our IHSA Regional which we have done the past two years. Everything after that would be icing on the cake. If you want a David and Goliath story that is us. We don't have any superstars, just a bunch of kids who work, and their consistency over time, is allowing them to achieve a great things."
6. St. Joseph (S.J. -Ogden)
2015 Finish: 3rd -1A State
Coach: Jason Retz
Key returners:
Justin Phillips (Sr.) 15:22 / 9:46 / 4:26
Wyatt Wolfersberger (Jr.) 16:23 / 10:22 / 4:52
Austin Rein (Jr.) 16:49
Braden Pridemore (Jr.) 16:58 / 10:50 / 4:57
Mitchell Thompson (Jr.) 16:54
Isiah McCune (So.) 17:48
Ray's Take: St. Joseph-Ogden returns only one scorer from their 3rd place trophy winning team, but that scorer is the very capable Justin Phillips, all-state in 2015 and the 6th overall returner to 1A. Phillips boasts a 9:46/4:26 PB coupling and is by far the frontrunner for the Spartans. SJO reloads the pack with good runners but they are very far behind Phillips and will have to fill in behind him if a trophy is the goal again this year. Wyatt Wolfersberger and Austin Rein are the other two runners with experience at Detweiller. Braden Pridemore and Mitchell Thompson have both broken 17 and are the likely 4-5 combo for SJO, who have some work to do to get back to last year's form.
7. Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
2015 Finish: 11th - State
Coach: Patrick Warkins
Key returners:
Chris Ahlers (Sr.) 15:46 / 4:26
Spencer Mauch (So.) 16:44
Shay Hafner (So.) 16:45 / 11:08 / 4:57
Brady Osbourne (Sr.) 16:48
Quentin Larson (Jr.) 17:32
Matt Hodge (Jr.) 18:06
Drew Henson (Jr.)
Ray's Take: Newman Central Catholic has been on the rise consistently for the past three years, and after losing just their fifth scorer from last year, that trend looks to continue in 2016. Leading the way is Chris Ahlers, a 1A favorite looking ahead to the 1600m competition in 2017. He certainly will have an all-state spot on his radar. Spencer Mauch, Shay Hafner and Brady Osbourne all determine a strong 2-4 pack and need to be the backbone for the 2015 Bureau Valley regional champs. Quentin Larson, Matt Hodge and Drew Henson will fill out the Comets' top seven. The Comets will be shooting for a top 10 finish, but their ceiling is sky-high depending on where their pack finishes. Top five in the state is not outside the realm of possibility for the rising Tree Rivers Conference power.
8. Eureka
2015 Finish: 12th - State
Coach: Brett Charlton
Key returners:
Logan Ogg (Sr.) 16:31
Eli Steinbeck (So.) 16:31
Kyle Johnson (So.) 16:32
Tommy Standish (Sr.) 16:31
Keith Walder (Jr.) 16:57
Don McFarlin (Jr.) 11:34
Ray's Take: The best pack running tactics in 1A were employed by Eureka in 2015. At state, six seconds separated the top four, 18 seconds separated the top 5 and 23 for the top 6. Five of those six return in 2016: Logan Off, Eli Steinbeck, Kyle Johnson, Tommy Standish, and Keith Walder (the first four has 3 mile PRs all within ONE SECOND of each other). The split that this team manages during the year will be fascinating-like other pack-oriented teams, their ceiling is high based on where the pack falls, but their lack of a front-runner could hurt them if they can't get the pack down to the 16:00 range. They will have stiff competition throughout the year, seeing Elmwood on multiple occasions.
9. Monticello
Coach: David Remmert
2015 Finish: 6th - State
Key returners:
Alex Helmuth (Jr.) 15:20 / 9:43 / 4:43 (23rd)
Garrett Dixon (So.) 16:14 / 10:02 / 4:36 (72nd)
Josiah Ratts (So.)
Nick Wilkin (So.)
Ethan Bright (So.) 11:28
Ryan Bright (So.) 11:16
Keegan Davis (So.) 18:12
Eric Tate (Jr.) 17:18 (153rd)
JC Wilkin (Jr.) 17:14 (150th)
Ray's Take: Coach David Remmert and the Sages of Monticello are frequent visitors to Detweiller each November but have unique circumstances this coming fall. "Our team this year is very young and we are re-building," says Remmert. " I anticipate our lead runner being junior Alex Helmuth, with Garrett Dixon, a sophomore, close behind. Beyond that, it's really up in the air, but we had a number of freshmen that had a great track season." Helmuth is a defending All-Stater and will be looking to dip under 15:00 this year. He has a young team to lead, expect anyone in a sophomore gaggle to step up, including Ethan Bright, Ryan Bright, Keegan Davis, Josiah Ratts and Nick Wilkin. Their pack will have to work as a unit to put runners in the front of races. Emmert: " I provide basic guidance for their summer training but nothing formal. The one thing I've always said is that passion can't be coached. They have to start their own engine - the beginning of the practice season is where we'll see who has done that and who hasn't."
10. Carlinville
2015 Finish: 6th - Shelbyville Regional
Coach: Charles Helton III
Key returners:
Jason Landon (Jr.) 16:15 / 4:49 / 1:57.6
Charles Helton IV (Jr.) 16:34 / 10:34 / 4:57
Grayson Armour (Jr.) 16:41
Samuel Mock (Jr.) 17:00
Bailey Lippold (So.) 17:33 / 11:12
Jacob Landon (So.)
Ray's Take: Carlinville was on the wrong side of the deepest sectional in the state in 2015 and finished seven points behind final qualifier Monticello. The Cavaliers lose their top two athletes from last year (not Cleveland, sorry Bulls fans) but return the rest of their top seven. Cory Landon's younger brother, Jason, is a speed specialist but strong on the grass as well. He will be motivated after sickness hampered his performance in Charleston at the end of the 2016 track season. Charlie Helton the fourth had a good track campaign and is the likely #2 behind Landon. Grayson Armour, Sam Mock and Bailey Lippold each ran on the 2015 Shelbyville regional runner-ups. Keep an eye on Jacob Landon as well, who will be beginning his second full season of XC.
Carlinville may be a team to benefit from the power shift in the state this year, especially as St. Joseph Ogden and Unity lose a lot of firepower from 2015, so look for the Cavs to shoot for Peoria and possibly a top 10 position.